How Scarcity Drives LTO Menu Success & Our Favorites from 2025

Both psychology and economics have a lot to say about something called the scarcity principle, or the idea that people change their behavior based on their desire for something and the availability of that thing. In other words, supply and demand, except that supply is short. The restaurant industry has leveraged scarcity through limited time offer menus for decades…because it works.

We Are Seeing an Influx of LTOs

The COVID-19 shutdown decreased the number of limited time offer (LTO) menus for a while. Restaurant brands shrank their menus to operate with leaner teams and to focus on safety protocols. But now, six years after the height of the pandemic, we are seeing a resurgence of LTOs.

Take, for instance, Taco Bell, which launched twice as many new menu items in 2025 as in 2024, including many beverages, desserts, and LTOs, such as the Milk Bar Churro. It’s not only restaurant brands bringing LTOs to the table. In fact, we’re seeing more convenience store LTOs now than even before the pandemic. A Technomic report showed that convenience stores promoted 2,816 LTOs in 2024 compared to 1,438 in 2019. Technomic also reports that every year, in total, we see more LTOs than the previous year. In November 2025 alone, 4,000 LTOs were rolled out.

The reasons for the influx are multiple. Most notably, consumers are eating out less and are looking for value and entertainment when they do. Most likely, though, more brands are rolling out LTOs because when done well, they work.

LTOs Are About FOMO and Thinking Shortcuts

Psychologically, the pain of losing out on an experience is twice as powerful as the joy of gaining one. When a menu item is labeled as a “limited time offer,” it triggers an immediate fear of missing out (FOMO). Consumers aren’t just choosing a meal. They are trying to avoid the regret of missing a culinary experience.

More deeply rooted in the human brain than FOMO are heuristics, or mental shortcuts that allow humans to make quick decisions. One of the strongest mental shortcuts we possess is the belief that rare equates to valuable. By limiting the availability of a menu item, a brand automatically increases the perceived worth of that item in the guest’s mind.

A Note about Engineered Scarcity in Loyalty Programs

Loyalty programs have evolved from simple “buy-ten-get-one” cards into engineered scarcity. By integrating LTOs directly into the program, you create a velvet rope experience that rewards engaged fans with exclusive access. This strategy not only drives FOMO, but also helps you gather that critical “first-party customer data,” allowing you to move toward highly personalized, high-value incentives.

For example, Starbucks offers its 34.6 million active members games with exclusive prizes and limited-run food or merchandise. These limited-quantity rewards are often only purchasable with loyalty points, turning the points themselves into a scarce currency.

The Urgency of the Limited Window

When a menu item is anchored to a specific date or a limited quantity, it shifts the consumer’s internal dialogue from “Should I go there eventually?” to “I have to go there now.” For brands, this urgency is a powerful tool to drive immediate foot traffic and break a guest’s standard routine, especially if the product is new, interesting, or includes an already-coveted flavor or association with another brand.

A Note About Brand Collaboration

Cross-brand collaborations have become a cornerstone of LTO strategy in 2025 and 2026. While high-profile partnerships like Adidas and Roblox or Airbnb and LEGO dominate the broader retail space, the food and beverage sector is following suit with equal intensity. Whether it’s the thematic pairing of Bridgerton with The Republic of Tea on grocery store shelves or Applebee’s and “The Rock’s” Teremana Tequila on the menu, these brand mashups create a unique form of scarcity.

McDonald’s is a fascinating study on its own. Since 2024, the burger brand has collaborated with Crocs, Krispy Kreme, Shania Twain, Hello Kitty, and Angel Reese of the WNBA, among many others. These aren’t only special happy meal toys. These are also special sauces, sides, sandwiches, meals, and packaging.

Low-Risk Innovation

Scarcity also serves as a strategic safety net for the business. Introducing a permanent menu item is a significant operational commitment. However, leveraging the scarcity principle through a seasonal or otherwise short window allows a brand to:

• Test bold trends: Experiment with shifting consumer preferences, emerging cuisines, or contemporary flavors that could be too polarizing for a permanent.
• Optimize operations: Verify if a recipe is replicable and profitable across locations before a full-scale rollout.
• Boost the core brand: Often, the scarcity item acts as a hook. Even if a guest ends up ordering their usual favorite, the limited-time offer was the catalyst that got them through the door.

>>> We talk more about how to set up a successful limited time offer strategy in this earlier article on the Food & Drink Resources blog. <<<

The Halo Effect

The halo effect occurs when a single, high-excitement menu item casts a positive glow over a brand’s entire identity. By introducing a fresh idea for a short window, a restaurant or c-store signals to the guest that the brand is an innovative leader. Even if a customer doesn’t ultimately order the LTO, the mere presence of that exciting menu item increases their perception of the brand’s overall quality and differentiation. This impression casts a halo around the brand, making its everyday menu items seem more appealing.

The Bottom Line on LTOs

The scarcity principle creates a now-or-never moment that rewards the guest for their loyalty and curiosity. By understanding that guests place higher value on what is fleeting, restaurant brands can build smarter, more profitable menus that keep the brand identity fresh and the dining room full.

The FDR Team’s Favorite LTOs from 2025

FDR team members have taken to sampling LTO menus and sharing the experience on our Instragram page. Of the 10 or so we posted about in 2025, here are our favorites.

Smoothie King Pumpkin Smoothie Post

Pumpkin LTO season is upon us, and @smoothieking is delivering. They had a line of six pumpkin smoothies for the fall, including the D-Lite smoothie that we tried without the dates. Enjoyable smooth texture and subtle pumpkin taste. ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Will order again!

Jimmy John’s Picklewich Post

We tried Jimmy John’s VITO Picklewich alongside their Italian sub on bread to find both sandwiches included salami, capocollo and provolone cheese, fresh-sliced lettuce, tomato, onion, oil and vinegar and oregano-basil. It was only the carrier that differed.

The Picklewich wasn’t messier than the regular sub, and the Italian meats stood up to the pickle well! Kudos to Jimmy John’s for leveraging the pickle trend.

Chipotle Carne Asada Post

Chipotle’s carne asada was back on the grill for a bit last year, and everyone ordered it, at least everyone in line atthe same time as us was ordering it. We counted: 12 people in front of us purchased some variation with carne asada. Our lettuce-heavy bowl could’ve used a few more pieces of the meat, which was perfectly spiced, tender, and popped with lime.

Want to see more of the FDR team’s favorite LTOs? Follow up on Instagram to see where we are eating. And if you’d like to know more about our limited time offer menu culinary services, give us a shout.